Thanks for this analysis! What is the involvement and impact of foreign actors? I’d naively expected that Myanmar is an interesting size, big enough that it has neighbors and trading partners with very strong preferences, and small enough that relatively sane amounts of support (via aid, refugee tolerance, trade boycotts of one side or the other, etc.) could swing things.
I hope to find enough time to address this later. The foreign actors are affecting the revolution in two days. The western powers have revoked all aid and trade privileges, damaging the economy. The regional actors tend to side with the expected winner. The internal actors then update off the foreigners expectations.
Thanks for this analysis! What is the involvement and impact of foreign actors? I’d naively expected that Myanmar is an interesting size, big enough that it has neighbors and trading partners with very strong preferences, and small enough that relatively sane amounts of support (via aid, refugee tolerance, trade boycotts of one side or the other, etc.) could swing things.
I hope to find enough time to address this later. The foreign actors are affecting the revolution in two days. The western powers have revoked all aid and trade privileges, damaging the economy. The regional actors tend to side with the expected winner. The internal actors then update off the foreigners expectations.