I think your observations on motivation/goals are correct—though also admit I’m not qualified to be sure about those claims. They are, it seems, rather widely shared/suggested.
But I don’t think that has really changed for, what?, maybe 20 years now. So is the fact we see Putin escalating things now to what most in the world seem to think are insane levels maybe says his discount rate (or his time horizon, had not considered that before) has changed I would think. That’s following on your statement in point 1.
If the game theory is saying we get war with high discount rates—or that the probabilities of such outcomes greatly increase - then what might we think Putin’s rate changed to? Why? And, perhaps, what other implication would that change suggest?
I had not thought about it before starting this comment but wondering what the ramifications might be in the game when one player suddenly is given a much shorter time frame in the game. Does that perhaps produce the same outcomes as the high discount rate parameter in the game model?
I think your observations on motivation/goals are correct—though also admit I’m not qualified to be sure about those claims. They are, it seems, rather widely shared/suggested.
But I don’t think that has really changed for, what?, maybe 20 years now. So is the fact we see Putin escalating things now to what most in the world seem to think are insane levels maybe says his discount rate (or his time horizon, had not considered that before) has changed I would think. That’s following on your statement in point 1.
If the game theory is saying we get war with high discount rates—or that the probabilities of such outcomes greatly increase - then what might we think Putin’s rate changed to? Why? And, perhaps, what other implication would that change suggest?
I had not thought about it before starting this comment but wondering what the ramifications might be in the game when one player suddenly is given a much shorter time frame in the game. Does that perhaps produce the same outcomes as the high discount rate parameter in the game model?