I think many people on this site over-update on recent progress. But I also doubt the opposite extreme you’re at.
I think it’s very unlikely (<10% chance) that we’ll see AGI within the next 50 years, and entirely possible (>25% chance) that it will take over 500 years.
Even just evolutionary meta-algorithms would probably have runaway progress by 500 years. That is, without humans getting super specific, deep math insights. This is easy to imagine with the enormously higher yearly ASIC hardware fabrication we’d be seeing long before then. I don’t think a 500 year timeframe would take an unexpected math obstacle, it would take a global catastrophe.
I’d give this formulation of AGI a 93% chance of happening by 2522, and 40% by 2072. If I could manage to submit a post before December, I’d be arguing for the Future Fund prize to update to a later timeline. But not this much later.
I think many people on this site over-update on recent progress. But I also doubt the opposite extreme you’re at.
Even just evolutionary meta-algorithms would probably have runaway progress by 500 years. That is, without humans getting super specific, deep math insights. This is easy to imagine with the enormously higher yearly ASIC hardware fabrication we’d be seeing long before then. I don’t think a 500 year timeframe would take an unexpected math obstacle, it would take a global catastrophe.
I’d give this formulation of AGI a 93% chance of happening by 2522, and 40% by 2072. If I could manage to submit a post before December, I’d be arguing for the Future Fund prize to update to a later timeline. But not this much later.