So I was pattern matching this as an argument for “why the probability decreases more than we previously acknowledged, as the threat increases”, but that isn’t what you’re going for. Attempting to summarize it in my own words:
There are three relevant events: (A) the threat will not happen; (B) not giving in to blackmail will trigger the threat; (C) giving in to blackmail will trigger the threat (or worse). As the threat increases, P(B) and P(C) both decrease, but P(C) begins to dominate P(B).
It’s accurate. But it’s crucial, of course, to see why P(C) comes to dominate P(B), and I think this is what most commenters have missed. (But maybe I’m wrong about that; maybe its because of pattern matching.) As the threat increases, P(C) comes to dominate P(B) because the threat, when large enough, is evidence against the threatened event occurring.
So I was pattern matching this as an argument for “why the probability decreases more than we previously acknowledged, as the threat increases”, but that isn’t what you’re going for. Attempting to summarize it in my own words:
Is this an accurate summary?
It’s accurate. But it’s crucial, of course, to see why P(C) comes to dominate P(B), and I think this is what most commenters have missed. (But maybe I’m wrong about that; maybe its because of pattern matching.) As the threat increases, P(C) comes to dominate P(B) because the threat, when large enough, is evidence against the threatened event occurring.