I mostly agree, but there are ways of explaining basic Bayesian reasoning without having to get into too many prerequisites. See my reply to David Gerard, which is an attempt to do just that.
Probably best to teach them this before they know it’s a conversation about deconversion. No one is going to want to learn something if it means losing an argument.
Alert: inferential distance failure!
You would have to make them first read the sequences and learn university-level math and physics. And probably some philosophy of science.
I mostly agree, but there are ways of explaining basic Bayesian reasoning without having to get into too many prerequisites. See my reply to David Gerard, which is an attempt to do just that.
Probably best to teach them this before they know it’s a conversation about deconversion. No one is going to want to learn something if it means losing an argument.