2) a) I check the ticket, assuming I have nothing better to do and that I remember it. To be more precise, if there is a family emergency and I have to drive to the hospital for whatever reason, I will not go out of my way to jury-rig an internet connection and I won’t look for the ticket before going out.
I check the ticket because even a one in a million chance of free money is still free money.
b)I am not very confident; I’m not sure, but a grossly inaccurate measure of how confident I would be is that I’d think there is a 1⁄10 chance of me having won.
Other alternative hypotheses are the lottery site being a phishing trap, the site being nothing more than advertisement, additional requirements which would make the collection of the prize impossible (you need the lottery ticket, the receipt, it must be collected yesterday and it can only be deposited in the Monte dei Paschi di Siena).
c)Between collecting the prize and seeing the bank confirm the deposit, depending on what other additional information I’ve seen (skeeviness of the lottery operators, state of the office where I collected the prize, and so on).
2) a) I check the ticket, assuming I have nothing better to do and that I remember it. To be more precise, if there is a family emergency and I have to drive to the hospital for whatever reason, I will not go out of my way to jury-rig an internet connection and I won’t look for the ticket before going out. I check the ticket because even a one in a million chance of free money is still free money. b)I am not very confident; I’m not sure, but a grossly inaccurate measure of how confident I would be is that I’d think there is a 1⁄10 chance of me having won. Other alternative hypotheses are the lottery site being a phishing trap, the site being nothing more than advertisement, additional requirements which would make the collection of the prize impossible (you need the lottery ticket, the receipt, it must be collected yesterday and it can only be deposited in the Monte dei Paschi di Siena). c)Between collecting the prize and seeing the bank confirm the deposit, depending on what other additional information I’ve seen (skeeviness of the lottery operators, state of the office where I collected the prize, and so on).