Russia was trying peaceful and diplomatic options. Very actively. Literally begging to compromise. Before 2014 and before 2022. That did not work. At all.
Deposing the democratically elected government with which Russia was a military ally was an act hostile enough. And Maidan nationalists have already started killing anti-maidan protesters in Crimea and other Russian-speaking regions. I was following those events very closely and was speaking with some of the people living there then.
This seems to miss the point of my comment. What are the reasons for annexation? Not just military action, or even regime change, but specifically annexation? All military goals could be achieved by regime change, keeping Ukraine in current borders, and that would’ve been much better optics. And all economic reasons disappeared with the end of colonialism. So why annexation? My answer: it’s an irrational, ideological desire for that territory. That desire has taken hold of many Russians, including Putin.
Crimea was the only Ukrainian region that was overwhelmingly Russian and pro-Russian. And also the region where a Russian key military base is situated. And at the moment there was (at least, formally) legal way to annex it with the minimal bloodshed. Annexing it has resolved the issue of the military base, and gave the legal status, protection guarantees and rights for the citizens of Crimean republic.
Regime change for entire Ukraine would mean a bloody war, insurgency, and installing a government which the majority of Ukraine population would be against. And massive sanctions against Russia AND Ukraine, for which Russia was not prepared then.
It’s true that annexing Crimea would’ve been rational in a world where +base and +region were the only consequences. (Similar to how the US in the 1840s grabbed Texas and California from Mexico without much problems.) But we do not live in that world. We live in a world where many countries are willing to penalize Russia for annexation and help Ukraine defend. Russia’s leadership didn’t understand that and still doesn’t. As a result, Russia’s security and economic situation have both gotten much worse and continue to get worse. That’s why I call it irrational.
No such countries. There is USA that is willing to penalize it’s geopolitical opponents for being such. There are USA puppets that are willing to penalize those that USA told them to. They were penalizing Russia for arbitrary reasons before and after Crimea. If Russia would not annex Crimea, it would be penalized about the same, but with another cited reasons.
I see a common pattern in your arguments. Ukraine never did large scale repression against Russian speakers—“but they would’ve done it”. Europe didn’t start sanctioning Russian resources until several months into the war—“but they would’ve done it anyway”. The US reduced troops and warheads in Europe every year from 1991 to 2021 - “but they would have attacked us”. 141 countries vote in the UN to condemn Russian aggression—“but they’re all US puppets, just waiting for a chance to harm us”.
There’s a name for this kind of irrationality: paranoia. Dictators often drum up paranoia to stay in power, which has the side effect of making the country aggressive.
I disagree with the first part, but I’m not sure if this is the right place to discuss the details. We can discuss it in DM if you want.
You are spot on with the second, though. Exploiting fears of real or perceived threats is an extremely effective tool to control people and nations by posing as their protector.
The champion in this regard is the USA, of course. It fuels and exploits Europe’s fear of Russia, Japan’s fear of China, India’s and China’s mutual fear, and so on.
Domestically, the USA’s elites exploit an extremely wide range of fears. Fear of terrorists, fear of Russia, fear of China, fear of Nazis, fear of people of different parties, races, sexuality, and even fear of people who fear LGBTQ+ or specific races.
The USA has been using the “divide and conquer” strategy liberally for at least a century now. This will likely have catastrophic consequences, as a divided world will have much less chance of surviving the acute risk period.
Putin also exploits fears, such as fears of LGBT “propaganda”, Nazis, and the USA. But I don’t think his position before 2022 was so shaky that he would have to resort to war to hold it
I think that the support for hurting Russia is much greater in Eastern Europe than in USA. (Maybe with the exception of Hungary.) That does not seem to match the “they only want it because they are puppets”.
For USA, Russia is some kind of noble ancient enemy. Kicking them while they are down may even feel unsportsmanlike.
For Eastern Europe, it is (for the anti-Russian part of the population) more like: “yeah, kick them while you can, stomp as hard as you can, so that they can never hurt us again”. Many families remember relatives who were raped by the Red Army (no, it wasn’t “only” Germany), kidnapped for Soviet extermination camps, etc. Ukraine is re-living this history right now, for the others this is more like “horrible stories my grandma told me when she considered me old enough to hear it”.
Also, are you aware that Russia was planning to annex Belarus and Moldova next? (Putin actually wrote about his plans with Ukraine and Belarus in 2021.) But even taking the entire Ukraine would already make them my neighbors. I prefer that not to happen.
*
That said, perhaps in larger picture, it is completely irrelevant what the Eastern Europeans want to do, if USA decided otherwise.
That doesn’t change the fact that they want it. Definitely not just puppets doing whatever USA tells them. (The example of Hungary actually shows that even the little countries are capable to ignore the American wishes.)
*
Sorry for the mindkilling tone, but I find it annoying when people from internet keep telling me that I have no agency, not even my own thoughts and wishes, I just think what the American overlords want me to think. (Unlike people in Russia or USA, who are allowed to be independent thinkers.)
I would point out that Putin’s goal wasn’t to make Russia more prosperous, and that what Putin considers good isn’t the same as what an average Russian would consider good. Like Putin’s other military adventures, the Crimean annexation and heavy military support of Donbas separatists in 2014 probably had a goal like “make the Russian empire great again” (meaning “as big as possible”) and from Putin’s perspective the operations were a success. Especially as (if my impression is correct) the sanctions were fairly light and Russia could largely work around them.
Partly he was right, since Russia was bigger. But partly his view was a symptom of continuing epistemic errors. For example, given the way the 2022 invasion started, it looks like he didn’t notice the crucial fact that his actions caused Ukrainians to turn strongly against Russia after his actions in 2014.
In any case this discussion exemplifies why I want a site entirely centered on evidence. Baturinsky claims that when the Ukrainian parliament voted to remove Yanukovych from office 328 votes to 0 (about 73% of the parliament’s 450 members) this was “the democratically elected government” being “deposed”. Of course he doesn’t mention this vote or the events leading up to it. Who “deposed the democratically elected government”? The U.S.? The tankies say it was the U.S. So who are these people, then? Puppets of the U.S.?
I shouldn’t have to say this on LessWrong, but without evidence it’s all just meaningless he-said-she-said. I don’t see truthseeking in this thread, just arguing.
Russia was trying peaceful and diplomatic options. Very actively. Literally begging to compromise. Before 2014 and before 2022. That did not work. At all.
Deposing the democratically elected government with which Russia was a military ally was an act hostile enough. And Maidan nationalists have already started killing anti-maidan protesters in Crimea and other Russian-speaking regions. I was following those events very closely and was speaking with some of the people living there then.
This seems to miss the point of my comment. What are the reasons for annexation? Not just military action, or even regime change, but specifically annexation? All military goals could be achieved by regime change, keeping Ukraine in current borders, and that would’ve been much better optics. And all economic reasons disappeared with the end of colonialism. So why annexation? My answer: it’s an irrational, ideological desire for that territory. That desire has taken hold of many Russians, including Putin.
Crimea was the only Ukrainian region that was overwhelmingly Russian and pro-Russian. And also the region where a Russian key military base is situated. And at the moment there was (at least, formally) legal way to annex it with the minimal bloodshed. Annexing it has resolved the issue of the military base, and gave the legal status, protection guarantees and rights for the citizens of Crimean republic.
Regime change for entire Ukraine would mean a bloody war, insurgency, and installing a government which the majority of Ukraine population would be against. And massive sanctions against Russia AND Ukraine, for which Russia was not prepared then.
It’s true that annexing Crimea would’ve been rational in a world where +base and +region were the only consequences. (Similar to how the US in the 1840s grabbed Texas and California from Mexico without much problems.) But we do not live in that world. We live in a world where many countries are willing to penalize Russia for annexation and help Ukraine defend. Russia’s leadership didn’t understand that and still doesn’t. As a result, Russia’s security and economic situation have both gotten much worse and continue to get worse. That’s why I call it irrational.
No such countries. There is USA that is willing to penalize it’s geopolitical opponents for being such. There are USA puppets that are willing to penalize those that USA told them to. They were penalizing Russia for arbitrary reasons before and after Crimea. If Russia would not annex Crimea, it would be penalized about the same, but with another cited reasons.
I see a common pattern in your arguments. Ukraine never did large scale repression against Russian speakers—“but they would’ve done it”. Europe didn’t start sanctioning Russian resources until several months into the war—“but they would’ve done it anyway”. The US reduced troops and warheads in Europe every year from 1991 to 2021 - “but they would have attacked us”. 141 countries vote in the UN to condemn Russian aggression—“but they’re all US puppets, just waiting for a chance to harm us”.
There’s a name for this kind of irrationality: paranoia. Dictators often drum up paranoia to stay in power, which has the side effect of making the country aggressive.
I disagree with the first part, but I’m not sure if this is the right place to discuss the details. We can discuss it in DM if you want.
You are spot on with the second, though. Exploiting fears of real or perceived threats is an extremely effective tool to control people and nations by posing as their protector.
The champion in this regard is the USA, of course. It fuels and exploits Europe’s fear of Russia, Japan’s fear of China, India’s and China’s mutual fear, and so on.
Domestically, the USA’s elites exploit an extremely wide range of fears. Fear of terrorists, fear of Russia, fear of China, fear of Nazis, fear of people of different parties, races, sexuality, and even fear of people who fear LGBTQ+ or specific races.
The USA has been using the “divide and conquer” strategy liberally for at least a century now. This will likely have catastrophic consequences, as a divided world will have much less chance of surviving the acute risk period.
Putin also exploits fears, such as fears of LGBT “propaganda”, Nazis, and the USA. But I don’t think his position before 2022 was so shaky that he would have to resort to war to hold it
I think that the support for hurting Russia is much greater in Eastern Europe than in USA. (Maybe with the exception of Hungary.) That does not seem to match the “they only want it because they are puppets”.
For USA, Russia is some kind of noble ancient enemy. Kicking them while they are down may even feel unsportsmanlike.
For Eastern Europe, it is (for the anti-Russian part of the population) more like: “yeah, kick them while you can, stomp as hard as you can, so that they can never hurt us again”. Many families remember relatives who were raped by the Red Army (no, it wasn’t “only” Germany), kidnapped for Soviet extermination camps, etc. Ukraine is re-living this history right now, for the others this is more like “horrible stories my grandma told me when she considered me old enough to hear it”.
Also, are you aware that Russia was planning to annex Belarus and Moldova next? (Putin actually wrote about his plans with Ukraine and Belarus in 2021.) But even taking the entire Ukraine would already make them my neighbors. I prefer that not to happen.
*
That said, perhaps in larger picture, it is completely irrelevant what the Eastern Europeans want to do, if USA decided otherwise.
That doesn’t change the fact that they want it. Definitely not just puppets doing whatever USA tells them. (The example of Hungary actually shows that even the little countries are capable to ignore the American wishes.)
*
Sorry for the mindkilling tone, but I find it annoying when people from internet keep telling me that I have no agency, not even my own thoughts and wishes, I just think what the American overlords want me to think. (Unlike people in Russia or USA, who are allowed to be independent thinkers.)
I would point out that Putin’s goal wasn’t to make Russia more prosperous, and that what Putin considers good isn’t the same as what an average Russian would consider good. Like Putin’s other military adventures, the Crimean annexation and heavy military support of Donbas separatists in 2014 probably had a goal like “make the Russian empire great again” (meaning “as big as possible”) and from Putin’s perspective the operations were a success. Especially as (if my impression is correct) the sanctions were fairly light and Russia could largely work around them.
Partly he was right, since Russia was bigger. But partly his view was a symptom of continuing epistemic errors. For example, given the way the 2022 invasion started, it looks like he didn’t notice the crucial fact that his actions caused Ukrainians to turn strongly against Russia after his actions in 2014.
In any case this discussion exemplifies why I want a site entirely centered on evidence. Baturinsky claims that when the Ukrainian parliament voted to remove Yanukovych from office 328 votes to 0 (about 73% of the parliament’s 450 members) this was “the democratically elected government” being “deposed”. Of course he doesn’t mention this vote or the events leading up to it. Who “deposed the democratically elected government”? The U.S.? The tankies say it was the U.S. So who are these people, then? Puppets of the U.S.?
I shouldn’t have to say this on LessWrong, but without evidence it’s all just meaningless he-said-she-said. I don’t see truthseeking in this thread, just arguing.