Eliezer: If you are a level below Jaynes, Evolution is at least a hundred levels below the average engineer. What happened to the small gap between Village Idiot and Einstein?
Lara Foster: I’m pretty sure that a recursively self-improving AGI with capabilities that were surprisingly above those of an IQ 130 human as frequently as they were below those of an IQ 130 human would have been able to develop into something irresistibly powerful if created a decade ago. I’d expect that this was possible two decades ago. Three decades is pushing it a bit, but just a bit.
Eliezer: If you are a level below Jaynes, Evolution is at least a hundred levels below the average engineer. What happened to the small gap between Village Idiot and Einstein?
We are trying to solve a much harder problem, and we can reasonably expect to solve it in a great deal less time and effort.
Eliezer: If you are a level below Jaynes, Evolution is at least a hundred levels below the average engineer. What happened to the small gap between Village Idiot and Einstein?
Lara Foster: I’m pretty sure that a recursively self-improving AGI with capabilities that were surprisingly above those of an IQ 130 human as frequently as they were below those of an IQ 130 human would have been able to develop into something irresistibly powerful if created a decade ago. I’d expect that this was possible two decades ago. Three decades is pushing it a bit, but just a bit.
We are trying to solve a much harder problem, and we can reasonably expect to solve it in a great deal less time and effort.
I suspect the levels are logarithmic.