A habit I find my mind practicing incredibly often is simulation of the worst case scenario. Obviously the worst case scenario for any human interaction is that they will become murderously enraged and do everything in their power to destroy you. This is generally safe to dismiss as nonsense/completely paranoid. After numerous iterations of this, you start ignoring the unrealistic worst-possible scenarios (that often make so little sense there is nothing you can do to react to them) and get down to the realistic worst case scenario. Often times in my youth this meant thinking about the reaction to my saying exactly what I felt and thought. The reactions I predicted in response were inaccurate to the point of caricature, but I often found that, even in the wost case scenario that made half sense, there was still a path forward. It wasn’t the end of the world or some irreversible horror that would scar me forever, it was just an event where emotions got heated. That’s generally it. There’s little way to create a lasting problem without planning to create such a thing.
Obviously this doesn’t apply to supernatural actions on your part (creating strong AI is, in many ways, a supernatural scenario), but since those lie outside the realm of common logic, you have to handle them specially. Interestingly, when I was realistic about it, people didn’t react too badly to when I thought about what would happen if I suddenly did some intensely supernatural event like telekinesis. Sure, it’s surprising, and they’ll want you to help them move, but there’s nothing they can really do if you insist you want to keep it a secret. They pretty much have to respect your right to self-determination. Of course they could always go supervillain on you like in the comics, but that’s not a terribly realistic worst-case scenario even if it were strictly possible.
Of course it sounds like meaningless fiction at that point, but it serves to illustrate just how bad the worst case scenario is; I’ve found it is very hard to pretend the worst case is immensely terrible when you think about it realistically.
A habit I find my mind practicing incredibly often is simulation of the worst case scenario. [...]
I’m not saying this is generally inadvisable, but it seems dangerous for some kinds of people because of a serious possible failure mode: by focussing on the half-plausible worst-case scenario, you will cause yourself to assign additional probability to them. Furthermore, they will come true sometimes, which will give you a feeling that you were right to imagine them, an impression of confirmation, which could lead to a problematic spiral. If you have any inclination towards social anxiety, practice with extreme caution!
That’s true. The process does rely on finding a solution to the worst case scenario. If you’re going to be crippled by fear or anxiety, probably a very bad practice to emulate.
A habit I find my mind practicing incredibly often is simulation of the worst case scenario. Obviously the worst case scenario for any human interaction is that they will become murderously enraged and do everything in their power to destroy you. This is generally safe to dismiss as nonsense/completely paranoid. After numerous iterations of this, you start ignoring the unrealistic worst-possible scenarios (that often make so little sense there is nothing you can do to react to them) and get down to the realistic worst case scenario. Often times in my youth this meant thinking about the reaction to my saying exactly what I felt and thought. The reactions I predicted in response were inaccurate to the point of caricature, but I often found that, even in the wost case scenario that made half sense, there was still a path forward. It wasn’t the end of the world or some irreversible horror that would scar me forever, it was just an event where emotions got heated. That’s generally it. There’s little way to create a lasting problem without planning to create such a thing.
Obviously this doesn’t apply to supernatural actions on your part (creating strong AI is, in many ways, a supernatural scenario), but since those lie outside the realm of common logic, you have to handle them specially. Interestingly, when I was realistic about it, people didn’t react too badly to when I thought about what would happen if I suddenly did some intensely supernatural event like telekinesis. Sure, it’s surprising, and they’ll want you to help them move, but there’s nothing they can really do if you insist you want to keep it a secret. They pretty much have to respect your right to self-determination. Of course they could always go supervillain on you like in the comics, but that’s not a terribly realistic worst-case scenario even if it were strictly possible.
Of course it sounds like meaningless fiction at that point, but it serves to illustrate just how bad the worst case scenario is; I’ve found it is very hard to pretend the worst case is immensely terrible when you think about it realistically.
I’m not saying this is generally inadvisable, but it seems dangerous for some kinds of people because of a serious possible failure mode: by focussing on the half-plausible worst-case scenario, you will cause yourself to assign additional probability to them. Furthermore, they will come true sometimes, which will give you a feeling that you were right to imagine them, an impression of confirmation, which could lead to a problematic spiral. If you have any inclination towards social anxiety, practice with extreme caution!
That’s true. The process does rely on finding a solution to the worst case scenario. If you’re going to be crippled by fear or anxiety, probably a very bad practice to emulate.