I’ll note that a potential disagreement I have with your post on out-of-control AGIs ruining the world is that I actually expect the defense-offense balance to be much less biased towards the attack than you show here, and in particular, I think that to the extent AI improves things, my prior is that it’s symmetric in the improvement, so the offense-defense balance ultimately doesn’t change.
I’ll note that a potential disagreement I have with your post on out-of-control AGIs ruining the world is that I actually expect the defense-offense balance to be much less biased towards the attack than you show here, and in particular, I think that to the extent AI improves things, my prior is that it’s symmetric in the improvement, so the offense-defense balance ultimately doesn’t change.