I think that for Kelly betting to work out in the case of multiple propositions, you need to have a combinatorial prediction market that effectively lets you bet on every possible joint outcome—especially in the realistic case where the propositions you’re looking at aren’t independent. The good news is that if you do have a combinatorial prediction market, then the property of money representing probability is maintained even if only some propositions are revealed, as described in the last section of my unfortunately overly long blog post on the topic.
[Edit: see also johnswentworth’s LessWrong comment which makes a similar point and which I didn’t see before making my AlignmentForum comment]
I think that for Kelly betting to work out in the case of multiple propositions, you need to have a combinatorial prediction market that effectively lets you bet on every possible joint outcome—especially in the realistic case where the propositions you’re looking at aren’t independent. The good news is that if you do have a combinatorial prediction market, then the property of money representing probability is maintained even if only some propositions are revealed, as described in the last section of my unfortunately overly long blog post on the topic.
[Edit: see also johnswentworth’s LessWrong comment which makes a similar point and which I didn’t see before making my AlignmentForum comment]