Perhaps I’m misinterpreting you, but I feel like this was intended as disagreement? If so, I’d appreciate clarification. It seems basically correct to me, and consistent with what I said previously. I still think that: if, in 2011, you gave 10% probability by 2018 and 50% by 2028; and if, in 2019, you still give 50% by 2028 (as an explicit estimate, i.e. you haven’t just not-given an updated estimate); then this is surprising, even acknowledging that 50% is probably not very precise in either case.
Perhaps I’m misinterpreting you, but I feel like this was intended as disagreement? If so, I’d appreciate clarification. It seems basically correct to me, and consistent with what I said previously. I still think that: if, in 2011, you gave 10% probability by 2018 and 50% by 2028; and if, in 2019, you still give 50% by 2028 (as an explicit estimate, i.e. you haven’t just not-given an updated estimate); then this is surprising, even acknowledging that 50% is probably not very precise in either case.