Do you know of any solid methodologies for predicting outcomes from technology? To cash out political determinism I’d go with something like Bruce Bruno De Mesquita’s work, but I don’t know any methods to analyze technological determination of history other than using case-by-case reasoning, and nearly all of the “cases” I’ve seen are post hoc.
Do you know of any solid methodologies for predicting outcomes from technology? To cash out political determinism I’d go with something like Bruce Bruno De Mesquita’s work, but I don’t know any methods to analyze technological determination of history other than using case-by-case reasoning, and nearly all of the “cases” I’ve seen are post hoc.
Nobody has a practical methodology for predicting the future in very much detail.
Technological determinism still seems like a big and important idea to me, though.