I think it’s definitely possible that Rishi Sunak might be operating in an epistemic environment where both AI capabilities and AI alignment seem easy, but that’s also bad news.
If leaders think that alignment is easy, then that’s setting humanity up for a situation where leaders pick the alignment engineers who are the best at loudly saying “yes, I can do it, pick me pick me pick meeeeee” and then everyone dies because the leadership stacked their team with people with the strongest tendency to imagine themselves succeeding, when in reality humans solving alignment might be like chimpanzees doing bridge engineering or rocket science.
If we had regulation in the UK ASAP then that would mean that governments would still be able to exploit uses of existing systems without burning the remaining timeline before the finish line. But this indicates that people are probably going to have to continue trying to solve alignment during race dynamics instead of during a regulatory pause, and $100m is probably not worth that, especially because that $100m will give the UK leverage over the AI safety community, instead of regulation which would give them leverage over AI capabilities companies.
I think it’s definitely possible that Rishi Sunak might be operating in an epistemic environment where both AI capabilities and AI alignment seem easy, but that’s also bad news.
If leaders think that alignment is easy, then that’s setting humanity up for a situation where leaders pick the alignment engineers who are the best at loudly saying “yes, I can do it, pick me pick me pick meeeeee” and then everyone dies because the leadership stacked their team with people with the strongest tendency to imagine themselves succeeding, when in reality humans solving alignment might be like chimpanzees doing bridge engineering or rocket science.
If we had regulation in the UK ASAP then that would mean that governments would still be able to exploit uses of existing systems without burning the remaining timeline before the finish line. But this indicates that people are probably going to have to continue trying to solve alignment during race dynamics instead of during a regulatory pause, and $100m is probably not worth that, especially because that $100m will give the UK leverage over the AI safety community, instead of regulation which would give them leverage over AI capabilities companies.