While you’re right, this all happened after Bismarck and the pre-WWI German government had put a lot of effort into avoiding a two-front war because they did not share the General Staff’s optimism about being able to handle it. So this constitutes failing to admit losing a very high stakes bet, and does seem inherently irrational.
My impression is that the German military was never optimistic concerning winning vs England, France, and Russia. Those that claimed WWI was deliberately initiated by Germany, however, had to falsely claim that the German military was optimistic.
It’s theoretically plausible, but from my understanding of WWI once the Russians mobilized the Germans justifiably believed that they either had to fight a two front war or allow the Russians to get into a position that would have made it extremely easy for Russia+France to conquer Germany.
Agreed, although German further diplomatic errors contributed to England going against them. What they should have done is offer to let England take possession of the German fleet in return for England not fighting Germany and protecting Germany’s trade routes.
Indeed. A more plausible alternative strategy for Germany would be to forget the invading Belgium plan, fight defensively on the western front, and concentrate their efforts against Russia at the beginning. Britain didn’t enter the war until the violation of Belgian neutrality. Admittedly, over time French diplomats might have found some other way to get Britain into the war, but Britain was at least initially unenthusiastic about getting involved, so I think Miller is on the right track in thinking Germany’s best hope was to look for ways to keep Britain out indefinitely.
concentrate their efforts against Russia at the beginning.
Eh, with perfect hindsight, maybe. The thing about Russia is, it has often been possible to inflict vast defeats on its armies in the field; but how do you knock it out of a war? Sure, in the Great War it did happen eventually—but the Germans weren’t planning on multiple years of war that would stretch societies past their breaking point. (For that matter, in 1917 Germany was itself feeling the strain; it’s called the “Turnip Winter” for a reason.) There were vast slaughters and defeats on the Eastern Front, true; but the German armies were never anywhere near Moscow—not even after the draconian peace signed at Brest-Litovsk. The German staff presumably didn’t think there was any chance of getting a reasonably quick decision in Russia.
Do note, when a different German leader made the opposite assumption, “it is only a question of kicking in the door, and the whole rotten structure will come tumbling down”… that didn’t go so well either; and he didn’t even have a Western front to speak of. It seems to me that Germany’s “problems” in 1914 just didn’t have a military solution; I put problems in scare quotes because they did have the excellent peaceful solution of keeping your mouth shut and growing the economy. It’s not as though France was going to start anything.
While you’re right, this all happened after Bismarck and the pre-WWI German government had put a lot of effort into avoiding a two-front war because they did not share the General Staff’s optimism about being able to handle it. So this constitutes failing to admit losing a very high stakes bet, and does seem inherently irrational.
My impression is that the German military was never optimistic concerning winning vs England, France, and Russia. Those that claimed WWI was deliberately initiated by Germany, however, had to falsely claim that the German military was optimistic.
Is it plausible that the German politicians ignored the German military?
It’s theoretically plausible, but from my understanding of WWI once the Russians mobilized the Germans justifiably believed that they either had to fight a two front war or allow the Russians to get into a position that would have made it extremely easy for Russia+France to conquer Germany.
Right. The ‘Blank Check’ was the major German diplomatic screwup. Once the Austro-Hungarian Empire issued its ultimatum, they were utterly stuck.
Agreed, although German further diplomatic errors contributed to England going against them. What they should have done is offer to let England take possession of the German fleet in return for England not fighting Germany and protecting Germany’s trade routes.
Ummmmm. That seems rather drastic, and would go over like something that doesn’t go over.
Indeed. A more plausible alternative strategy for Germany would be to forget the invading Belgium plan, fight defensively on the western front, and concentrate their efforts against Russia at the beginning. Britain didn’t enter the war until the violation of Belgian neutrality. Admittedly, over time French diplomats might have found some other way to get Britain into the war, but Britain was at least initially unenthusiastic about getting involved, so I think Miller is on the right track in thinking Germany’s best hope was to look for ways to keep Britain out indefinitely.
Eh, with perfect hindsight, maybe. The thing about Russia is, it has often been possible to inflict vast defeats on its armies in the field; but how do you knock it out of a war? Sure, in the Great War it did happen eventually—but the Germans weren’t planning on multiple years of war that would stretch societies past their breaking point. (For that matter, in 1917 Germany was itself feeling the strain; it’s called the “Turnip Winter” for a reason.) There were vast slaughters and defeats on the Eastern Front, true; but the German armies were never anywhere near Moscow—not even after the draconian peace signed at Brest-Litovsk. The German staff presumably didn’t think there was any chance of getting a reasonably quick decision in Russia.
Do note, when a different German leader made the opposite assumption, “it is only a question of kicking in the door, and the whole rotten structure will come tumbling down”… that didn’t go so well either; and he didn’t even have a Western front to speak of. It seems to me that Germany’s “problems” in 1914 just didn’t have a military solution; I put problems in scare quotes because they did have the excellent peaceful solution of keeping your mouth shut and growing the economy. It’s not as though France was going to start anything.
Not by itself, but France was very willing to support Russian aggression against the central powers.