Part of the problem is the incentive structure faced by regulators. If they allow a vaccine out that kills 100 people they will be crucified. On the other hand if they delay a vaccine and 10,000 people die then nothing bad will happen to them. There are few incentives to make balanced assessments of risk/reward.
You have the same problem with the introduction of strong measures to control the Wuhan virus. It seems that in almost every country things have to get pretty bad before there is support to do anything serious. Taiwan is one of the very few exceptions:
Taiwan’s epidemic prevention policy (EPP) i. Travel limitations ii. Cancel big gatherings iii. Public health interventions iv. Behavioural changes v. Daily briefings vi. Compensation vii. Counter disinformation
I see in President Trump’s announcement of a state of emergency he has cut some red tape inhibiting mass testing. So it is maybe not an entirely lost cause.
From a strictly lolbertarian perspective, good vaccines are a shitty business to be in, shitty vaccines are a great business to be in.
Real vaccine: capital intensive, may or may not succeed despite best efforts, side effects will probably be present, requires that you produce insane amounts and successfully market to every potential customer or it doesn’t work. In the best case where you actually achieve maximum distribution, the pathogen is gone, and you’ll never sell another one, so if you didn’t profit in the first rush, you’ll never see your money again.
Alex jones colloidal silver: I tell you it works, if you’re not dead in a year, you’re obviously another satisfied customer, here buy another bullshit vaccine from me.
Second product is better for the seller than the first, capital investment is zero, marketing cost can find efficiencies in cost per customer, repeat business is probable.
If you can come up with a business model that makes good vaccines profitable in the current environment, absent aggressive government subsidies, you should start that business and shout your model from the rooftops, because most people in biotech would (angrily) agree with my summary.
Source: have thrown this at many biotech executives and government officers involved in vaccine procuremrnt. Have gotten head nodding.
So why won’t this happen?
Part of the problem is the incentive structure faced by regulators. If they allow a vaccine out that kills 100 people they will be crucified. On the other hand if they delay a vaccine and 10,000 people die then nothing bad will happen to them. There are few incentives to make balanced assessments of risk/reward.
You have the same problem with the introduction of strong measures to control the Wuhan virus. It seems that in almost every country things have to get pretty bad before there is support to do anything serious. Taiwan is one of the very few exceptions:
Please note Taiwan’s swift response. “42 confirmed cases & 1 death.”
Taiwan’s epidemic prevention policy (EPP) i. Travel limitations ii. Cancel big gatherings iii. Public health interventions iv. Behavioural changes v. Daily briefings vi. Compensation vii. Counter disinformation
I see in President Trump’s announcement of a state of emergency he has cut some red tape inhibiting mass testing. So it is maybe not an entirely lost cause.
From a strictly lolbertarian perspective, good vaccines are a shitty business to be in, shitty vaccines are a great business to be in.
Real vaccine: capital intensive, may or may not succeed despite best efforts, side effects will probably be present, requires that you produce insane amounts and successfully market to every potential customer or it doesn’t work. In the best case where you actually achieve maximum distribution, the pathogen is gone, and you’ll never sell another one, so if you didn’t profit in the first rush, you’ll never see your money again.
Alex jones colloidal silver: I tell you it works, if you’re not dead in a year, you’re obviously another satisfied customer, here buy another bullshit vaccine from me.
Second product is better for the seller than the first, capital investment is zero, marketing cost can find efficiencies in cost per customer, repeat business is probable.
If you can come up with a business model that makes good vaccines profitable in the current environment, absent aggressive government subsidies, you should start that business and shout your model from the rooftops, because most people in biotech would (angrily) agree with my summary.
Source: have thrown this at many biotech executives and government officers involved in vaccine procuremrnt. Have gotten head nodding.