Personally, I think the most likely scenario is either that Earth is somehow special and intelligent life is rarer than we give it credit for; or that alien UFAIs are generally not interested in interstellar/intergalactic travel.
Given the sort of numbers thrown about in Fermi arguments, believing the former would suggest you are outrageously overconfident in your certainty that your beliefs are correct about the likely activities of AIs. Surely the second conclusion is more reasonable?
Personally, I don’t think it’s at all unreasonable to assign probabilities of any particular planet developing intelligent life on orders of 10^-12 or lower.
Given the sort of numbers thrown about in Fermi arguments, believing the former would suggest you are outrageously overconfident in your certainty that your beliefs are correct about the likely activities of AIs. Surely the second conclusion is more reasonable?
Er… yes. But I don’t think it undermines my point that we are unlikely to be assimilated by aliens in the near future.
Personally, I don’t think it’s at all unreasonable to assign probabilities of any particular planet developing intelligent life on orders of 10^-12 or lower.