But it leaves open a trap where people accidentally sneak in whatever prior probabilities they want—I think you fall into this on the Sleeping Beauty problem.
I see this as explicitly not happening. nyan_sandwich says:
No update happens in the Doomsday Argument; both glorious futures and impending doom are consistent with my existence, their relative probability comes from other reasoning.
“Other reasoning” including whatever prior probabilities were there before.
I see this as explicitly not happening. nyan_sandwich says:
“Other reasoning” including whatever prior probabilities were there before.