If Intrade were an efficient market that made use of all of the information in the world, that would be true. People make enough bad bets often enough that it’s not too hard to find predictions that are obviously priced wrong.
If Intrade were an efficient market that made use of all of the information in the world, that would be true. People make enough bad bets often enough that it’s not too hard to find predictions that are obviously priced wrong.