As you learn more about most systems, the likelihood ratio should likely go down for each additional point of evidence.
I’d be interested to see the assumptions which go into this. As Stuart has pointed out, it’s got to do with how correlated the evidence is. And for fat-tailed distributions we probably should expect to be surprised at a constant rate.
I’d be interested to see the assumptions which go into this. As Stuart has pointed out, it’s got to do with how correlated the evidence is. And for fat-tailed distributions we probably should expect to be surprised at a constant rate.