My most sincere apologies, I’m a bit new to Less Wrong and my rationality is still not perfected. Are the rest of my theories still sound, or do they fall under the umbrella of disaster that is game theory as well?
The underlying theory- that Houses correspond to aptitudes / personalities rather than goals- is mistaken. That’s something Harry is mistaken about it too, so don’t feel too bad about that. (That’s one of the reasons he’s so bad at modeling others.)
Your other observations appear correct, and the outcomes you list are all plausible (though obviously not exhaustive). None of them strike me as particularly probable (except for the OR statement which encompasses most outcomes- the other option is that Dumbledore wants Harry’s rage, just like Quirrel might, and so is deliberately not saving Hermione). Quirrel is a primary suspect behind this plot against Hermione, and gets more out of the Harry who has declared war on Wizarding Britain than the Harry who is grateful that Hermione was saved. McGonagall does not have the hero’s disease that everything is her fault, and so is unlikely to see this event as under her control, and is thus unlikely to intervene.
Similarly, Lucius is probably Snape’s closest friend at this point, given Snape’s new understanding of Dumbledore’s motives and lowered connection to Harry. Snape might have a crush on Hermione, but I don’t think we have evidence to that effect and he would have to be totally mad in love to go against the Wizengamot.
Well, if Harry fell for it, then I suppose I can’t be too bad… :P. But isn’t that what Harry “hears” when he thinks in the personalities of Gryffindor, Hufflepuff, and Slytherin? (with Gryffindor and Hufflepuff usually tag-teaming?) If not, what does it mean? I’m guessing that it is his imagination (not, for example, Voldemort’s Horcrux talking to him), but why else would E.Y. insert it into this story?
I agree that Quirrell benefits the most from Harry becoming so angry that he loses control in order to protect Hermione and is therefore probably behind the plot; but if Harry loses control, he loses rationality, and might do something like cast the Patronus Charm and reveal the True Patronus; something I have a hunch Professor Quirrell does not want. In addition, if he were to reveal how bright his Patronus was, could they tie him to the Azkaban escape? Again, something Professor Quirrell does not want.
I agree that Lucius is Snape’s closest friend currently (breaking with canon) but given the conversation Harry had had with Snape earlier, I think Snape loves Lily still, not Hermione. Interestingly, I think Snape might not necessarily be good or evil in HPMOR; I think he might be a sort of free agent. He might actually act in order to preserve Draco more than anyone else; he is very protective of Draco.
But isn’t that what Harry “hears” when he thinks in the personalities of Gryffindor, Hufflepuff, and Slytherin? (with Gryffindor and Hufflepuff usually tag-teaming?) If not, what does it mean? I’m guessing that it is his imagination (not, for example, Voldemort’s Horcrux talking to him), but why else would E.Y. insert it into this story?
Well, this is why Harry’s models of others are bad. Because he assumes they just have the one Slytherin/Grffindor/Hufflepuff/Ravenclaw that they listen to. He underestimates people because of it. I mean, check out what Hermione says about him in chapter 31.
As for E.Y. inserting those, it’s great for narrative; it’s a much more dynamic way of showing a character grappling with their inner doubt than them just sitting there and feeling conflicted (I swear I’ve seen that term in so many fanfics). I also think it’s a holdover from Shinji and Warhammer 40k, another popular fanfiction I believe E.Y. is familiar with. Even though it’s not as overtly rationalist as HPMoR, it’s got many elements of a rationalist worldview.
But doesn’t Harry accept that he has more than one “voice”? So if he’s truly a rationalist, wouldn’t he rationally gather evidence based on how people acted and his own voices, and after these observations, look at how complex people can be? Yes, Hermione doesn’t think that he sees other people in that way, but he must, because he cares what Hermione and Draco think, and he goes to Prof. Quirrell for help and advice, doesn’t he?
I agree about the interesting narrative. It does make it more complex and quite a bit more real. (I don’t know about you, but it’s similar to how I think/have inner doubt.) Much better than “feeling conflicted”.
My most sincere apologies, I’m a bit new to Less Wrong and my rationality is still not perfected. Are the rest of my theories still sound, or do they fall under the umbrella of disaster that is game theory as well?
The underlying theory- that Houses correspond to aptitudes / personalities rather than goals- is mistaken. That’s something Harry is mistaken about it too, so don’t feel too bad about that. (That’s one of the reasons he’s so bad at modeling others.)
Your other observations appear correct, and the outcomes you list are all plausible (though obviously not exhaustive). None of them strike me as particularly probable (except for the OR statement which encompasses most outcomes- the other option is that Dumbledore wants Harry’s rage, just like Quirrel might, and so is deliberately not saving Hermione). Quirrel is a primary suspect behind this plot against Hermione, and gets more out of the Harry who has declared war on Wizarding Britain than the Harry who is grateful that Hermione was saved. McGonagall does not have the hero’s disease that everything is her fault, and so is unlikely to see this event as under her control, and is thus unlikely to intervene.
Similarly, Lucius is probably Snape’s closest friend at this point, given Snape’s new understanding of Dumbledore’s motives and lowered connection to Harry. Snape might have a crush on Hermione, but I don’t think we have evidence to that effect and he would have to be totally mad in love to go against the Wizengamot.
Well, if Harry fell for it, then I suppose I can’t be too bad… :P. But isn’t that what Harry “hears” when he thinks in the personalities of Gryffindor, Hufflepuff, and Slytherin? (with Gryffindor and Hufflepuff usually tag-teaming?) If not, what does it mean? I’m guessing that it is his imagination (not, for example, Voldemort’s Horcrux talking to him), but why else would E.Y. insert it into this story?
I agree that Quirrell benefits the most from Harry becoming so angry that he loses control in order to protect Hermione and is therefore probably behind the plot; but if Harry loses control, he loses rationality, and might do something like cast the Patronus Charm and reveal the True Patronus; something I have a hunch Professor Quirrell does not want. In addition, if he were to reveal how bright his Patronus was, could they tie him to the Azkaban escape? Again, something Professor Quirrell does not want.
I agree that Lucius is Snape’s closest friend currently (breaking with canon) but given the conversation Harry had had with Snape earlier, I think Snape loves Lily still, not Hermione. Interestingly, I think Snape might not necessarily be good or evil in HPMOR; I think he might be a sort of free agent. He might actually act in order to preserve Draco more than anyone else; he is very protective of Draco.
Well, this is why Harry’s models of others are bad. Because he assumes they just have the one Slytherin/Grffindor/Hufflepuff/Ravenclaw that they listen to. He underestimates people because of it. I mean, check out what Hermione says about him in chapter 31.
As for E.Y. inserting those, it’s great for narrative; it’s a much more dynamic way of showing a character grappling with their inner doubt than them just sitting there and feeling conflicted (I swear I’ve seen that term in so many fanfics). I also think it’s a holdover from Shinji and Warhammer 40k, another popular fanfiction I believe E.Y. is familiar with. Even though it’s not as overtly rationalist as HPMoR, it’s got many elements of a rationalist worldview.
But doesn’t Harry accept that he has more than one “voice”? So if he’s truly a rationalist, wouldn’t he rationally gather evidence based on how people acted and his own voices, and after these observations, look at how complex people can be? Yes, Hermione doesn’t think that he sees other people in that way, but he must, because he cares what Hermione and Draco think, and he goes to Prof. Quirrell for help and advice, doesn’t he?
I agree about the interesting narrative. It does make it more complex and quite a bit more real. (I don’t know about you, but it’s similar to how I think/have inner doubt.) Much better than “feeling conflicted”.