I don’t have a clue why Dumbledore would be involved in this case, but… Bellatrix is Narcissa’s sister. And it occurs to me that a) Bella would be perfectly capable of burning her sister to death for basically any reason at all and b) Harry would be extremely reluctant to destroy her even if he knew she did it.
Oh, thank you, that’s it, that’s the answer: Bellatrix is Narcissa’s sister, and of course Lucius would be more comfortable blaming Dumbledore than Bellatrix, not only for family reasons but for fear of Voldemort.
Plus, consider the Law of Dramatic Efficiency: Bellatrix is one of the few people we’ve met who would fully trigger Harry’s oath (to take Narcissa’s killer as an enemy) yet Harry wouldn’t want to kill. Because Bellatrix wasn’t “tricked” into killing Narcissa. Brainwashed, yes, but not tricked.
Bellatrix meets all the conditions for Narcissa’s killer:
If it’s not Dumbledore, it has to be someone Lucius would rather not name to Draco.
Bellatrix: sister-in-law and Voldemort’s chief lieutenant.
It has to be someone Lucius has been in no position to take revenge on in the intervening years.
Bellatrix: in Azkaban.
It ought, dramatically, to be someone within the oath yet very uncomfortable for Harry to go after.
Bellatrix: in Harry’s mind, brainwashed into her evil, but not tricked into the murder of Narcissa.
So Bellatrix fits perfectly. Lucius blames Dumbledore, knowing Draco won’t trust Dumbledore claiming the contrary, and knowing how dangerous it would be for Draco to go after Bellatrix—or for Draco not to accept Bellatrix as an ally, if Voldemort returns.
Lucius lied about the killer so that Draco wouldn’t want revenge on someone so unsafe to want revenge on.
Voldemort himself is another one Lucius would lie to Draco about, but Voldemort would probably not have burned Narcissa alive, and it doesn’t have the storytelling punch, because Harry has far less problem taking Voldemort as an enemy than Bellatrix.
So I think you’ve got it. It’s Bellatrix, and Lucius lied about it to keep his son from a dangerous revenge, and Harry will have a huge problem once he finds out.
Oh, I just realized—this makes Lucius’ reaction to Harrymort make much more sense. Previously I was confused as to why he wasn’t either ingratiating or fearful, but instead was all “my son is the last worthwhile thing I have in the world” complete with threats of vengeance. Of course he would react like that if this had happened.
It’s a very nice theory, but Dumbledore’s (and the other characters’) reactions to Lucius proposing the deal don’t quite seem to match. Lucius also seems sincere about considering it a real blood debt from Dumbledore comparable to an attempt on his son, I don’t think he’s a high-level enough player to have even the narrator not mention anything suspicious about it if he were faking it.
I don’t have a clue why Dumbledore would be involved in this case, but… Bellatrix is Narcissa’s sister. And it occurs to me that a) Bella would be perfectly capable of burning her sister to death for basically any reason at all and b) Harry would be extremely reluctant to destroy her even if he knew she did it.
Oh, thank you, that’s it, that’s the answer: Bellatrix is Narcissa’s sister, and of course Lucius would be more comfortable blaming Dumbledore than Bellatrix, not only for family reasons but for fear of Voldemort.
Plus, consider the Law of Dramatic Efficiency: Bellatrix is one of the few people we’ve met who would fully trigger Harry’s oath (to take Narcissa’s killer as an enemy) yet Harry wouldn’t want to kill. Because Bellatrix wasn’t “tricked” into killing Narcissa. Brainwashed, yes, but not tricked.
Bellatrix meets all the conditions for Narcissa’s killer:
If it’s not Dumbledore, it has to be someone Lucius would rather not name to Draco. Bellatrix: sister-in-law and Voldemort’s chief lieutenant.
It has to be someone Lucius has been in no position to take revenge on in the intervening years. Bellatrix: in Azkaban.
It ought, dramatically, to be someone within the oath yet very uncomfortable for Harry to go after. Bellatrix: in Harry’s mind, brainwashed into her evil, but not tricked into the murder of Narcissa.
So Bellatrix fits perfectly. Lucius blames Dumbledore, knowing Draco won’t trust Dumbledore claiming the contrary, and knowing how dangerous it would be for Draco to go after Bellatrix—or for Draco not to accept Bellatrix as an ally, if Voldemort returns.
Lucius lied about the killer so that Draco wouldn’t want revenge on someone so unsafe to want revenge on.
Voldemort himself is another one Lucius would lie to Draco about, but Voldemort would probably not have burned Narcissa alive, and it doesn’t have the storytelling punch, because Harry has far less problem taking Voldemort as an enemy than Bellatrix.
So I think you’ve got it. It’s Bellatrix, and Lucius lied about it to keep his son from a dangerous revenge, and Harry will have a huge problem once he finds out.
If this is true, I’m looking forward to the inevitable Draco+Neville team-up.
Oh, I just realized—this makes Lucius’ reaction to Harrymort make much more sense. Previously I was confused as to why he wasn’t either ingratiating or fearful, but instead was all “my son is the last worthwhile thing I have in the world” complete with threats of vengeance. Of course he would react like that if this had happened.
It’s a very nice theory, but Dumbledore’s (and the other characters’) reactions to Lucius proposing the deal don’t quite seem to match. Lucius also seems sincere about considering it a real blood debt from Dumbledore comparable to an attempt on his son, I don’t think he’s a high-level enough player to have even the narrator not mention anything suspicious about it if he were faking it.
This fits very well. Nice job!