based on the details of the estimates that doesn’t look to me like it’s just bad luck
For example:
There’s a question about whether the S&P 500 will end the year higher than it began. When the question closed, the index had increased from 2500 to 2750. The index has increased most years historically. But the Metaculus estimate was about 50%.
On this question, at the time of closing, 538′s estimate was 99+% and the Metaculus estimate was 66%. I don’t think Metaculus had significantly different information than 538.
For example:
There’s a question about whether the S&P 500 will end the year higher than it began. When the question closed, the index had increased from 2500 to 2750. The index has increased most years historically. But the Metaculus estimate was about 50%.
On this question, at the time of closing, 538′s estimate was 99+% and the Metaculus estimate was 66%. I don’t think Metaculus had significantly different information than 538.