Well, what base rates can inform the trajectory of AGI?
dominance of h sapiens over other hominids
historical errors in forecasting AI capabilities/​timelines
impacts of new technologies on animals they have replaced
an analysis of what base rates AI has already violated
rate of bad individuals shaping world history
analysis of similarity of AI to the typical new technology that doesn’t cause extinction
success of terrorist attacks
impacts of covid
success of smallpox eradication
Would be an interesting exercise to do to flesh this out.
Well, what base rates can inform the trajectory of AGI?
dominance of h sapiens over other hominids
historical errors in forecasting AI capabilities/​timelines
impacts of new technologies on animals they have replaced
an analysis of what base rates AI has already violated
rate of bad individuals shaping world history
analysis of similarity of AI to the typical new technology that doesn’t cause extinction
success of terrorist attacks
impacts of covid
success of smallpox eradication
Would be an interesting exercise to do to flesh this out.