I think I agree.
For my information, what’s your favorite reference for superforecasters outperforming domain experts?
As of two years ago, the evidence for this was sparse. Looked like parity overall, though the pool of “supers” has improved over the last decade as more people got sampled.
There are other reasons to be down on XPT in particular.
I think I agree.
For my information, what’s your favorite reference for superforecasters outperforming domain experts?
As of two years ago, the evidence for this was sparse. Looked like parity overall, though the pool of “supers” has improved over the last decade as more people got sampled.
There are other reasons to be down on XPT in particular.