Your reply is focused on keeping secrets. I meant my comment to apply to the second claim—the one about governments being “too stupid”. That claim might be right—but it is not obvious. Government departments focused on this sort of thing (of which there are several) will understand—and no doubt already understand. The issue is more whether the communication lines are free, whether the top military brass take thier own boffins seriously—and whether they go on to get approval from head office.
As for secrecy—the NSA has a long history of extreme secrecy. The main reason most people don’t know about their secret tech projects is because their secrecy is so good. If they develop a superintelligence, I figure it will be a secret one that will probably remain chained up in their basement. They are the main reason, my graph has some probability mass already.
Your reply is focused on keeping secrets. I meant my comment to apply to the second claim—the one about governments being “too stupid”. That claim might be right—but it is not obvious. Government departments focused on this sort of thing (of which there are several) will understand—and no doubt already understand. The issue is more whether the communication lines are free, whether the top military brass take thier own boffins seriously—and whether they go on to get approval from head office.
As for secrecy—the NSA has a long history of extreme secrecy. The main reason most people don’t know about their secret tech projects is because their secrecy is so good. If they develop a superintelligence, I figure it will be a secret one that will probably remain chained up in their basement. They are the main reason, my graph has some probability mass already.