Instead, we’re left relying on more abstract forms of reasoning
See, the frustrating thing is, I really don’t think we are! There are loads of clear, concrete things that can be picked out and expanded upon. (See my sibling comment also.)
Honestly not sure if I agree or not, but even if true, it’s very hard to convince most people even with lots of real-world examples and data. Just ask anyone with an interest in the comparative quantitative risk assessment of different electricity sources, or ways of handling waste, and then ask them about the process of getting that permitted and built. And really, could you imagine if we subjected AI labs even to just 10% of the regulation we put in the way of letting people add a bedroom or bathroom to their houses?
Also, it doesn’t take a whole lot of abstraction to be more abstract than the physics examples I was responding too, and even then I don’t think we had nearly as much concrete data as we probably should have about the atmospheric nitrogen question. (Note that the H bomb developers also did the math that made them think Lithium-6 won’t contribute to yield, and were wrong. Not nearly as high stakes, so maybe they weren’t as careful? But still disconcerting).
See, the frustrating thing is, I really don’t think we are! There are loads of clear, concrete things that can be picked out and expanded upon. (See my sibling comment also.)
Honestly not sure if I agree or not, but even if true, it’s very hard to convince most people even with lots of real-world examples and data. Just ask anyone with an interest in the comparative quantitative risk assessment of different electricity sources, or ways of handling waste, and then ask them about the process of getting that permitted and built. And really, could you imagine if we subjected AI labs even to just 10% of the regulation we put in the way of letting people add a bedroom or bathroom to their houses?
Also, it doesn’t take a whole lot of abstraction to be more abstract than the physics examples I was responding too, and even then I don’t think we had nearly as much concrete data as we probably should have about the atmospheric nitrogen question. (Note that the H bomb developers also did the math that made them think Lithium-6 won’t contribute to yield, and were wrong. Not nearly as high stakes, so maybe they weren’t as careful? But still disconcerting).