If you SEE a coin flip come up heads (and examine the coin and perform whatever tests you like), what’s your posterior probability that the coin actually exists and it wasn’t a false memory or trick in some way?
Not enough to make any practical difference to any decision I am going to make. Only when I see the extraordinary evidence required to support an extraordinary hypothesis will it be raised to my attention.
Not enough to make any practical difference to any decision I am going to make. Only when I see the extraordinary evidence required to support an extraordinary hypothesis will it be raised to my attention.