Back when I tried playing some calibration games, I found I was not able to get successfully calibrated above 95%. At that point I start making errors from things like “misinterpreting the question” or “randomly hit the wrong button” and things like that.
The math is not quite right on this, but from this I’ve adopted a personal 5% error margin policy, this seems to practically be about the limit of my ability to make accurate predictions, and it’s served me well.
Back when I tried playing some calibration games, I found I was not able to get successfully calibrated above 95%. At that point I start making errors from things like “misinterpreting the question” or “randomly hit the wrong button” and things like that.
The math is not quite right on this, but from this I’ve adopted a personal 5% error margin policy, this seems to practically be about the limit of my ability to make accurate predictions, and it’s served me well.