If there is a 50-50 chance of foom vs non-foom, and in the non-foom scenario we expect to acquire enough evidence to get an order of magnitude more funding, then to maximize the chance of a good outcome we, today, should invest in the foom scenario because the non-foom scenario can be handled by more reluctant funds.
If there is a 50-50 chance of foom vs non-foom, and in the non-foom scenario we expect to acquire enough evidence to get an order of magnitude more funding, then to maximize the chance of a good outcome we, today, should invest in the foom scenario because the non-foom scenario can be handled by more reluctant funds.