Work overdetermination into your model. Overdetermination is like execution by a firing squad, getting 12 shots of which there are 6 that would be enough to kill the condemned alone. So you cannot say which shot killed him, because you could take any away and he is still dead, in fact you could take any five of the six away and he is still dead.
Overdetermination means external factors can predict 80% of your success and yet internal factors could also predict 80% of your success.
In an overdetermined system, just because it is factually accurate that external factors have a huge influence, it does not follow they have more influence than internal ones or that the internal ones are still not huge.
The mistake here may be that you examine the firing squad victim and you find a bullet through the heart with “external factors” written on it, and you stop the investigation there because it is clearly enough to cause the death and thus you have your answer. But you would find another five bullets in another crucial locations with “internal factors” written on them which kill the victim just as well.
Work overdetermination into your model. Overdetermination is like execution by a firing squad, getting 12 shots of which there are 6 that would be enough to kill the condemned alone. So you cannot say which shot killed him, because you could take any away and he is still dead, in fact you could take any five of the six away and he is still dead.
Overdetermination means external factors can predict 80% of your success and yet internal factors could also predict 80% of your success.
In an overdetermined system, just because it is factually accurate that external factors have a huge influence, it does not follow they have more influence than internal ones or that the internal ones are still not huge.
The mistake here may be that you examine the firing squad victim and you find a bullet through the heart with “external factors” written on it, and you stop the investigation there because it is clearly enough to cause the death and thus you have your answer. But you would find another five bullets in another crucial locations with “internal factors” written on them which kill the victim just as well.