I disagree that there should be situations where the less likely situation is correct only becaus it is less likely ( as a pre-programmed result). The likelihood of an event occurring in the game should be a result of your acquired evidence and only 100% certainty can exist when there is enough concrete evidence supporting the outcome. Within the game it should be possible for the true outcome to receive a high probability. Your idea however is essential in situations where the probability of events are very close. For example in a situation with 5 outcomes where all their probabilities are 15-30% it wouldn’t and shouldn’t be obvious.
100% isn’t a probability, and while it’s often feasible to approach it in practice, it’s also often not, because the evidence necessary to reach that degree of confidence simply isn’t available.
If you reach 95% confidence, you should still be wrong 5% of the time.
If the player learns that they can collect all the available evidence and be right 100% of the time in the game, and then finds that they simply can’t do that in real life, they may be disillusioned with the applicability of the general techniques of the game.
I disagree that there should be situations where the less likely situation is correct only becaus it is less likely ( as a pre-programmed result). The likelihood of an event occurring in the game should be a result of your acquired evidence and only 100% certainty can exist when there is enough concrete evidence supporting the outcome. Within the game it should be possible for the true outcome to receive a high probability. Your idea however is essential in situations where the probability of events are very close. For example in a situation with 5 outcomes where all their probabilities are 15-30% it wouldn’t and shouldn’t be obvious.
100% isn’t a probability, and while it’s often feasible to approach it in practice, it’s also often not, because the evidence necessary to reach that degree of confidence simply isn’t available.
If you reach 95% confidence, you should still be wrong 5% of the time.
If the player learns that they can collect all the available evidence and be right 100% of the time in the game, and then finds that they simply can’t do that in real life, they may be disillusioned with the applicability of the general techniques of the game.