This seems like useful analysis and categorization. Thank you.
These are not logically independent probabilities. In some cases, multiple can be combined. Your trial and error, value function, The Plan, etc could mostly all be applied in conjunction and stack success, it seems.
For others, and no coincidentally the more promising ones, like bureaucracy and tool AI, success does not prevent new AGI with different architectures that need new alignment strategies. Unless the first aligned ASI is used to prevent other ASIs from being built.
This seems like useful analysis and categorization. Thank you.
These are not logically independent probabilities. In some cases, multiple can be combined. Your trial and error, value function, The Plan, etc could mostly all be applied in conjunction and stack success, it seems.
For others, and no coincidentally the more promising ones, like bureaucracy and tool AI, success does not prevent new AGI with different architectures that need new alignment strategies. Unless the first aligned ASI is used to prevent other ASIs from being built.