these usually don’t assume “no intervention from longtermists”
I think the “don’t” is a typo?
No, I meant it as written. People usually give numbers without any assumptions attached, which I would assume means “I predict that in our actual world there is an X% chance of an existential catastrophe due to AI”.
I think the “don’t” is a typo?
No, I meant it as written. People usually give numbers without any assumptions attached, which I would assume means “I predict that in our actual world there is an X% chance of an existential catastrophe due to AI”.