Thanks for the survey. Few nitpicks: - the survey you mention is ~1y old (May 3-May 26 2021). I would expect those researchers to have updated from the scaling laws trend continuing with Chinchilla, PaLM, Gato, etc. (Metaculus at least did update significantly, though one could argue that people taking the survey at CHAI, FHI, DeepMind etc. would be less surprised by the recent progress.)
- I would prefer the question to mention “1M humans alive on the surface on the earth” to avoid people surviving inside “mine shafts” or on Mars/the Moon (similar to the Bryan Caplan / Yudkowsky bet).
Thanks for the survey. Few nitpicks:
- the survey you mention is ~1y old (May 3-May 26 2021). I would expect those researchers to have updated from the scaling laws trend continuing with Chinchilla, PaLM, Gato, etc. (Metaculus at least did update significantly, though one could argue that people taking the survey at CHAI, FHI, DeepMind etc. would be less surprised by the recent progress.)
- I would prefer the question to mention “1M humans alive on the surface on the earth” to avoid people surviving inside “mine shafts” or on Mars/the Moon (similar to the Bryan Caplan / Yudkowsky bet).