To make the point that this argument depends a lot on how one phrases the question: “AGI is complicated and the universe is big, how is everyone so sure we won’t die?”
I am not saying that my sentence above is a good argument, I’m saying it because it pushes my brain to actually figure out what is actually happening instead of creating priors about experts, and I hope it does the same for you
Before taking Eliezer’s opinion into account—what are your priors? (and why?)
For myself, I prefer to have my own opinion and not only to lean on expert predictions, if I can
To make the point that this argument depends a lot on how one phrases the question: “AGI is complicated and the universe is big, how is everyone so sure we won’t die?”
I am not saying that my sentence above is a good argument, I’m saying it because it pushes my brain to actually figure out what is actually happening instead of creating priors about experts, and I hope it does the same for you
(which is also why I love this post!)