We don’t need to be confident in this to think that AGI is likely in the next few decades. Extrapolating current compute trends, the available compute may well be enough to replicate such environments.
My guess is that we will try to create intelligence to do the things we want, but we may fail. The hard part of alignment is that succeeding at getting the thing you want from a superhuman AI seems surprisingly hard.
We don’t need to be confident in this to think that AGI is likely in the next few decades. Extrapolating current compute trends, the available compute may well be enough to replicate such environments.
My guess is that we will try to create intelligence to do the things we want, but we may fail. The hard part of alignment is that succeeding at getting the thing you want from a superhuman AI seems surprisingly hard.