I don’t buy the lottery example. You never encoded the fact that you know tomorrow’s numbers. Shouldn’t the prior be that you win a million guranteed if you buy the ticket?
No. I wrote it on mobile. I noticed that my comment dialog was at the wrong parent, scrolled back up to the comment I wanted to reply to, found the text I had already written when I pressed reply, and finished it without much further thought on the matter. Perhaps the reply button sent me to the wrong comment both times?
I don’t buy the lottery example. You never encoded the fact that you know tomorrow’s numbers. Shouldn’t the prior be that you win a million guranteed if you buy the ticket?
Did you post this comment in the right place?
No. I wrote it on mobile. I noticed that my comment dialog was at the wrong parent, scrolled back up to the comment I wanted to reply to, found the text I had already written when I pressed reply, and finished it without much further thought on the matter. Perhaps the reply button sent me to the wrong comment both times?