Thanks for clarifying. I do agree with the broader point that one should have a sort of radical uncertainty about (e.g.) a post AGI world. I’m not sure I agree it’s a big issue to leave that out of any given discussion though, since it shifts probability mass from any particular describable outcome to the big “anything can happen” area.
(This might be what people mean by “Knightian uncertainty”?)
Thanks for clarifying. I do agree with the broader point that one should have a sort of radical uncertainty about (e.g.) a post AGI world. I’m not sure I agree it’s a big issue to leave that out of any given discussion though, since it shifts probability mass from any particular describable outcome to the big “anything can happen” area. (This might be what people mean by “Knightian uncertainty”?)