This doesn’t really tell us a lot about how people predict others’ success. The information has been intentionally limited to a very high degree. It’s basically asking the test participants “This individual usually scores an 87. What do you expect her to score next time?” All of the interactions that could potentially create bias has been artificially stripped away by the experiment.
This means that participants are forced by the experimental setup to use Outside View, when they could easily be fooled into taking the Inside View and being swayed by perceptions of the student’s diligence, charisma, etc. The subject would probably be more optimistic than average about themselves, but the others’ predictions might not be nearly as accurate if you gave them more interaction with the subject.
In baseball prediction, it has been demonstrated that a simple weighted average with an age factor is nearly the best predictor of future performance. Watching the games and getting to know the players in most cases makes prediction worse. [I can’t easily find a citation for this, but I think it came originally from articles at baseballprospectus.com]
This really just leaves us with “use outside view to predict performance,” which is useful but not necessarily novel.
This doesn’t really tell us a lot about how people predict others’ success. The information has been intentionally limited to a very high degree. It’s basically asking the test participants “This individual usually scores an 87. What do you expect her to score next time?” All of the interactions that could potentially create bias has been artificially stripped away by the experiment.
This means that participants are forced by the experimental setup to use Outside View, when they could easily be fooled into taking the Inside View and being swayed by perceptions of the student’s diligence, charisma, etc. The subject would probably be more optimistic than average about themselves, but the others’ predictions might not be nearly as accurate if you gave them more interaction with the subject.
In baseball prediction, it has been demonstrated that a simple weighted average with an age factor is nearly the best predictor of future performance. Watching the games and getting to know the players in most cases makes prediction worse. [I can’t easily find a citation for this, but I think it came originally from articles at baseballprospectus.com]
This really just leaves us with “use outside view to predict performance,” which is useful but not necessarily novel.