Now you are going to tell me that in 99% of the cases your estimate will be wrong
No. Your calibration is still perfect if your priors are perfect. You can only get to that “99% chance of getting strong evidence for hypothesis” if you’re already very sure of that hypothesis math here
No. Your calibration is still perfect if your priors are perfect. You can only get to that “99% chance of getting strong evidence for hypothesis” if you’re already very sure of that hypothesis math here