I agree with “When you say ‘there’s a good chance AGI is near’, the general public will hear ‘AGI is near’”.
However, the general public isn’t everyone, and the people who can distinguish between the two claims are the most important to reach (per capita, and possibly in sum).
So we’ll do better by saying what we actually believe, while taking into account that some audiences will round probabilities off (and seeking ways to be rounded closer to the truth while still communicating accurately to anyone who does understand probabilistic claims). The marginal gain by rounding ourselves off at the start isn’t worth the marginal loss by looking transparently overconfident to those who can tell the difference.
I agree with “When you say ‘there’s a good chance AGI is near’, the general public will hear ‘AGI is near’”.
However, the general public isn’t everyone, and the people who can distinguish between the two claims are the most important to reach (per capita, and possibly in sum).
So we’ll do better by saying what we actually believe, while taking into account that some audiences will round probabilities off (and seeking ways to be rounded closer to the truth while still communicating accurately to anyone who does understand probabilistic claims). The marginal gain by rounding ourselves off at the start isn’t worth the marginal loss by looking transparently overconfident to those who can tell the difference.