I’d like to question both assumptions (2) and (3).
For (2), it’s not clear to me that “more energy” is the thing people want. Some things we do require a lot of energy (transportation, manufacturing) but some things that are really important use surprisingly little power (the internet).
For (3), it seems like we’ve been moving in the direction of more-efficiency for a long time (better engines and turbines to convert more of the fuel into useful energy, fewer losses to friction and transmission, etc.).
Overall, I think we’re seeing an upward trend in power usage because more people are getting the full benefit of modern technology, not because modern technology is using more power per person. I wish I could find a long-term graph, but per-capital power consumption in the United States has been going down for a few years, and total power consumption in the United States has been flat since around 1995: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_in_the_United_States#Consumption Another way of putting this is that it’s not that cars are using more gas, it’s that a lot more people have cars. This means that in the short-term we can expect energy usage to continue going up for a while, but it could plausibly peak if/when the global population peaks and we finish the project of ending worldwide poverty.
For (1) I could nitpick since fission could also power our civilization for a long time, although I don’t think it really effects the question you’re asking.
I’d like to question both assumptions (2) and (3).
For (2), it’s not clear to me that “more energy” is the thing people want. Some things we do require a lot of energy (transportation, manufacturing) but some things that are really important use surprisingly little power (the internet).
For (3), it seems like we’ve been moving in the direction of more-efficiency for a long time (better engines and turbines to convert more of the fuel into useful energy, fewer losses to friction and transmission, etc.).
Overall, I think we’re seeing an upward trend in power usage because more people are getting the full benefit of modern technology, not because modern technology is using more power per person. I wish I could find a long-term graph, but per-capital power consumption in the United States has been going down for a few years, and total power consumption in the United States has been flat since around 1995: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_in_the_United_States#Consumption Another way of putting this is that it’s not that cars are using more gas, it’s that a lot more people have cars. This means that in the short-term we can expect energy usage to continue going up for a while, but it could plausibly peak if/when the global population peaks and we finish the project of ending worldwide poverty.
For (1) I could nitpick since fission could also power our civilization for a long time, although I don’t think it really effects the question you’re asking.