In a popular election, you’d love to promise the world to 51% at the expense of the 49%. Why isn’t this more common?
I think this focus on 100% mistakes a lot of what political support is about. US presidential candiates spent a lot time campaigning in swing states and not in California because there little expected gain from campainging in Calinfornia.
It’s very wasteful for any US presidential candidate to promise anything to Californians.
A lot of people also don’t form their own opinions but take their opinions from thought leaders (which can be promised rewards) or through political messenging (which you buy with the campaign donations that you exchange for rewards).
I also don’t know what N% support literally means, in selectorate theory (the theory expounded by Dictator’s Handbook).
In a plurality vote, N% support means that percent of people voted for you. This definition is also used even when systems like the electoral college, gerrymandering, etc are in place, since these are seen as methods of disenfranchising some people.
But voting for a candidate doesn’t mean you like them very much! Particularly in a plurality system!
In an approval voting system, you similarly take “voted for that person” as “support”. This is plausibly more meaningful than “support” in a plurality vote. But it is also very different, since you support more than one candidate.
In other systems such as IRV and score voting ant STAR voting and so on, it gets increasingly murky.
I think it’s very misleading to see voting system that are prescriptive with the same lense as selectorate theory that tries to be descriptive.
In Germany where I’m from, to become a parliamentarian the selectorate are your fellow party members. If you are liked by your fellow party members you get a place high up in the list and/or a district you are likely to win. You do things that advance the agenda of your party to win favor with your fellow party members.
Then at an election voters decide about which agenda of which parties gets how much influence.
In the US you need donors to run a successful campaign to be elected as congressman so donors are central to the selectorate. Both the donors that give you money and also the donors that would fund a possible primary challenge against you.
If nobody knows their congressman and what good the congressmen did for their district expect those who are highly engaged and can drive campaign donations, that small class of people is effectively the selectorate
I think this focus on 100% mistakes a lot of what political support is about. US presidential candiates spent a lot time campaigning in swing states and not in California because there little expected gain from campainging in Calinfornia.
It’s very wasteful for any US presidential candidate to promise anything to Californians.
A lot of people also don’t form their own opinions but take their opinions from thought leaders (which can be promised rewards) or through political messenging (which you buy with the campaign donations that you exchange for rewards).
I agree.
I also don’t know what N% support literally means, in selectorate theory (the theory expounded by Dictator’s Handbook).
In a plurality vote, N% support means that percent of people voted for you. This definition is also used even when systems like the electoral college, gerrymandering, etc are in place, since these are seen as methods of disenfranchising some people.
But voting for a candidate doesn’t mean you like them very much! Particularly in a plurality system!
In an approval voting system, you similarly take “voted for that person” as “support”. This is plausibly more meaningful than “support” in a plurality vote. But it is also very different, since you support more than one candidate.
In other systems such as IRV and score voting ant STAR voting and so on, it gets increasingly murky.
I think it’s very misleading to see voting system that are prescriptive with the same lense as selectorate theory that tries to be descriptive.
In Germany where I’m from, to become a parliamentarian the selectorate are your fellow party members. If you are liked by your fellow party members you get a place high up in the list and/or a district you are likely to win. You do things that advance the agenda of your party to win favor with your fellow party members.
Then at an election voters decide about which agenda of which parties gets how much influence.
In the US you need donors to run a successful campaign to be elected as congressman so donors are central to the selectorate. Both the donors that give you money and also the donors that would fund a possible primary challenge against you.
If nobody knows their congressman and what good the congressmen did for their district expect those who are highly engaged and can drive campaign donations, that small class of people is effectively the selectorate