I don’t see any reason how the population can stabilize at the arbitrary level of 560 million. Either it will start to increase again at some point (due to cultural shift, natural selection or some other reason), or it will decline until the collapse of the industrial civilization. But in that case, with no universal education anymore, the demographic transition will reverse, and the population starts growing again to limits imposed by pre-industrial agriculture (which is somewhere around 2 to 3 billion, not half a billion).
560M is not from the paper, it is from the post. The paper has graph with births per year stabilizing at around 5M, which can correspond to different population sizes depending on child mortality, but all of them are unrealistically low.
This would leave us with a global population around 560M.
Sorry, I was just trying to say that the paper says that in 300-600 years we’d have ~560M people, not that it says that we’d get to 560M and level out.
I don’t see any reason how the population can stabilize at the arbitrary level of 560 million. Either it will start to increase again at some point (due to cultural shift, natural selection or some other reason), or it will decline until the collapse of the industrial civilization. But in that case, with no universal education anymore, the demographic transition will reverse, and the population starts growing again to limits imposed by pre-industrial agriculture (which is somewhere around 2 to 3 billion, not half a billion).
Where do you see the paper predicting stabilization at 560M?
560M is not from the paper, it is from the post. The paper has graph with births per year stabilizing at around 5M, which can correspond to different population sizes depending on child mortality, but all of them are unrealistically low.
Sorry, I was just trying to say that the paper says that in 300-600 years we’d have ~560M people, not that it says that we’d get to 560M and level out.