My specific prediction: “chain of thought” style approaches scale to (at least) human level AGI. The most common way in which these systems will be able to self-modify is by deliberately choosing their own finetuning data. They’ll also be able to train new and bigger models with different architectures, but the primary driver of capabilities increases will be increasing the compute used for such models, not new insights from the AGIs.
My specific prediction: “chain of thought” style approaches scale to (at least) human level AGI. The most common way in which these systems will be able to self-modify is by deliberately choosing their own finetuning data. They’ll also be able to train new and bigger models with different architectures, but the primary driver of capabilities increases will be increasing the compute used for such models, not new insights from the AGIs.