I’m not using the word irrelevant in the sense of “Doesn’t affect the probability calculation”, I’m using it in the sense of, “Doesn’t correspond to something that we care about”.
Yeah, I could have made my language clearer in my second paragraph. I was talking about the “probability of guessing the correct card” for a particular guessing strategy. And the probability of the next card being a king over some set of situations corresponds to the probability that the strategy of always guessing “King” for the next card gives the correct solution.
Anyway, my point was that you can manipulate your probability of being correct by changing which situations are included inside this calculation.
I’m not using the word irrelevant in the sense of “Doesn’t affect the probability calculation”, I’m using it in the sense of, “Doesn’t correspond to something that we care about”.
Yeah, I could have made my language clearer in my second paragraph. I was talking about the “probability of guessing the correct card” for a particular guessing strategy. And the probability of the next card being a king over some set of situations corresponds to the probability that the strategy of always guessing “King” for the next card gives the correct solution.
Anyway, my point was that you can manipulate your probability of being correct by changing which situations are included inside this calculation.