Ah, I see you’ve made the points about how the information about Tuesday was selected!
I’ve concluded that because of the problems in FNC, SIA, and SSA, that no anthropic probability theory works in the presence of duplicates: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/iNi8bSYexYGn9kiRh/paradoxes-in-all-anthropic-probabilities
It’s all a question of decision theory, not probability.
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RcvyJjPQwimAeapNg/torture-vs-dust-vs-the-presumptuous-philosopher-anthropic
https://arxiv.org/abs/1110.6437
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aiGOGkBiWEo
I just thought I’d add a note in case anyone stumbles upon this thread: Stuart has actually now changed his views on anthropic probabilities as detailed here.
Ah, I see you’ve made the points about how the information about Tuesday was selected!
I’ve concluded that because of the problems in FNC, SIA, and SSA, that no anthropic probability theory works in the presence of duplicates: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/iNi8bSYexYGn9kiRh/paradoxes-in-all-anthropic-probabilities
It’s all a question of decision theory, not probability.
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RcvyJjPQwimAeapNg/torture-vs-dust-vs-the-presumptuous-philosopher-anthropic
https://arxiv.org/abs/1110.6437
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aiGOGkBiWEo
I just thought I’d add a note in case anyone stumbles upon this thread: Stuart has actually now changed his views on anthropic probabilities as detailed here.