If rationalists think they’re right n% of the time and they’re not, then that’s condemnable in its own right, regardless of whether there’s a motte-and-bailey involved.
If rationalists think they’re right n% of the time and they are right n% of the time, but you aren’t allowed to be honest about that kind of thing while also being humble, the so much the worse for humility. There are good forms of humility, but the form of ‘humility’ that’s about lying or deceiving yourself about your competence level is straightforwardly bad.
Regardless, I don’t think there’s any inconsistency with being an ‘aspiring rationalist’. Even if you’re the most rational human alive, you probably still have enormous room to improve. Humans just aren’t that good at reasoning and decision-making yet.
Well, the motte is “I’m very epistemically humble”, and the bailey is “that’s why I’m always right”.
If rationalists think they’re right n% of the time and they’re not, then that’s condemnable in its own right, regardless of whether there’s a motte-and-bailey involved.
If rationalists think they’re right n% of the time and they are right n% of the time, but you aren’t allowed to be honest about that kind of thing while also being humble, the so much the worse for humility. There are good forms of humility, but the form of ‘humility’ that’s about lying or deceiving yourself about your competence level is straightforwardly bad.
Regardless, I don’t think there’s any inconsistency with being an ‘aspiring rationalist’. Even if you’re the most rational human alive, you probably still have enormous room to improve. Humans just aren’t that good at reasoning and decision-making yet.
The motte and bailey related to this I see is “I’m humble, and often wrong. But not on <whatever specific topic is at hand>.”