I’m not sure your refutation of the leverage penalty works. If there really are 3 ↑↑↑ 3 copies of you, your decision conditioned on that may still not be to pay. You have to compare
P(A real mugging will happen) x U(all your copies die)
against
P(fake muggings happen) x U(lose five dollars) x (expected number of copies getting fake-mugged)
where that last term will in fact be proportional to 3 ↑↑↑ 3. Even if there is an incomprehensibly vast matrix, its Dark Lords are pretty unlikely to mug you for petty cash. And this plausibly does make you pay in the Muggle case, since P(fake muggings happen) is way down if ‘mugging’ involves tearing a hole in the sky.
I’m not sure your refutation of the leverage penalty works. If there really are 3 ↑↑↑ 3 copies of you, your decision conditioned on that may still not be to pay. You have to compare
P(A real mugging will happen) x U(all your copies die)
against
P(fake muggings happen) x U(lose five dollars) x (expected number of copies getting fake-mugged)
where that last term will in fact be proportional to 3 ↑↑↑ 3. Even if there is an incomprehensibly vast matrix, its Dark Lords are pretty unlikely to mug you for petty cash. And this plausibly does make you pay in the Muggle case, since P(fake muggings happen) is way down if ‘mugging’ involves tearing a hole in the sky.
Yes, it looks like you’re right. I’ll think about this and probably write a follow-up later. Edit: I have finally written that follow-up.